2026 Becomes Second Hottest Year As El Nino Pushes August To Record High
Story By: Deborah Adorsu
The world is on course to record its second hottest year in history, with 2026 now ranked as the second warmest year ever measured.
According to a JoyNews Research analysis of global temperature data from ERA5 produced by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts for the EU Copernicus Climate Change Service, between January 1 and October 26 the average air temperature was 15.30 degrees Celsius. That is 0.64 degrees higher than the average for the same days between 1991 and 2020.
Only 2024 was warmer over the same period at 0.71 degrees above normal. 2026 is ahead of 2025 at 0.59 and 2023 at 0.55.
The spike is linked to El Nino. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA confirmed on October 8 that El Nino conditions were present with a key Pacific temperature index at 2.1 degrees above normal. NOAA gives more than 83 percent chance of a strong to very strong event lasting into early 2027.
August was the peak. August 2026 was the hottest August on record at 0.84 degrees above normal, beating the previous record shared by 2024 and 2023 by 0.13 degrees. It averaged 16.96 degrees Celsius, tying July 2023 as the hottest month in the entire record since 1940.
Copernicus and NOAA both confirmed August as the warmest August and tied for the warmest month ever. NOAA data showed global ocean surface temperature also hit an all time high in August at 69.98 degrees Fahrenheit.
Between August and October, temperatures averaged 0.85 degrees above normal, a jump of 0.32 degrees from the first four months of the year. May and June were the second warmest on record before August took first.
So far in 2026 there have been 65 record hot days where each day was hotter than the same date in every year since 1940.
Scientists say for 2026 to beat 2024 as the hottest year ever, the remaining 66 days would need to average 1.08 degrees above normal, which no year has done. NOAA calculates 2026 is most likely to end as the second warmest year with only 0.4 percent chance of a new record, but 2027 is expected to be even hotter as El Nino peaks in December 2026.
The analysis comes days before world leaders meet in Antalya Turkey for COP31 from November 9 to 20.