Cocoa Crisis Is Bigger Than Production
Story By: Deborah Adorsu
Ghana’s cocoa sector is facing a crisis that goes far beyond how many bags farmers harvest.
For years, cocoa has been Ghana’s biggest export earner. But today, the sector is caught between falling world prices, slowing growth, and a looming drop in production.
International prices which surged to about US$10,000 per tonne in early 2025 have fallen sharply to between US$5,420 and US$5,447 as of Tuesday.
At the same time, growth in the sector slowed to 5.2% in the second quarter of 2026, down from 14.2% a year earlier, according to the Ghana Statistical Service.
COCOBOD is now projecting at least a 16% drop in production for the 2026/2027 crop season.
Why is production falling?
- Bad weather and a very strong El Niño expected in 2026/2027
- Swollen shoot disease destroying farms
- Ageing cocoa trees
- Illegal mining – galamsey – taking over cocoa lands
The Bigger Problem: Raw Beans, Little Value
Experts say the real question is not just production, but how much value Ghana is losing by exporting too much cocoa in raw form.
Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire produce over 60% of the world’s cocoa, but capture only about 6-8% of the final retail value of chocolate. Switzerland and Belgium build billion-dollar brands from African beans.
Ghana has been processing less than 40% of its harvest. That is why government has now set a target:
From the 2026/27 season, at least 50% of Ghana’s cocoa must be processed locally.
Ghana already has grinding capacity of over 500,000 metric tonnes, enough to meet the target. The Cocoa Processing Company (CPC) is also to be revived, and COCOBOD can now sell beans directly to local processors.
Signs of Hope
Non-traditional exports hit a record US$5 billion in 2025, with processed and semi-processed goods accounting for US$3.9 billion.
Cocoa product exports alone rose 90% to US$1.8 billion in 2025 – led by cocoa paste (US$789.3m) and cocoa butter (US$635.7m).
The Test Ahead
The challenge now is whether Ghana can turn its cocoa into finished chocolate, butter, powder and cosmetics – creating jobs at home – instead of remaining exposed to price swings of raw beans.